With two races left before the 12-man field for the Chase is set, the two drivers on the outside looking to fight their way in have been heating it up as of late. With four wins on the season and a heavy favorite for the title coming into the year, few would have expected Kyle Busch to be thirty-four points out of twelfth at this point in the season. Close on his heals is Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers. The two have had run ins in the Nationwide Series and with only five points separating them in the standings heading into Atlanta, this battle is shaping up to be one for the books.

As the series takes aim at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, we take a look at these two and see which driver has the advantage with two races to go. Looking at their stats on the year, Busch may clean up on victories, but Vickers has been strong when it has mattered most and even has a better average finish than the driver of the No. 18.

Over the last ten races, Vickers has turned up the wick as he eyes his first Chase berth. Since Michigan in June, Vickers and his No. 83 Red Bull Racing team has put together one win, two top-5s, six top-10s and four poles and one DNF earning him a total of 1,370 points over that ten-race period. 

 “All we need to do is keep doing what we’ve been doing,” Vickers said leading up to this weekend’s Pep Boys Auto 500. “We accomplished our goal of reaching victory lane. We did that, and it was great…great for the whole team, Toyota and everybody at Red Bull Racing Team. Now we just need to make the Chase, and we’re capable of doing it. The goal has always been the Chase.”

Compare those numbers to that of Kyle Busch over those same ten races and it becomes clear why Vickers has been able to close in on ‘Rowdy’. Since that same Michigan race, Busch has one win, two top-fives, three top-10s and one DNF. While the numbers are not that far off, Busch also has four finishes of 22nd or worse, producing only 1,180 points.

 “We either make it or we don’t,” Busch said of his outlook on the next two races. “It’s not these two races that are going to set us in the ‘Chase.’ It’s the races that we’ve had this year that are going to set us out. We haven’t been up to where we need to be. We haven’t quite had the race cars. I haven’t quite been the driver behind the wheel I’ve needed to be. We’ve missed a little bit this year. It’s not going to be these next two races that we’d fault here that’s going to keep us out.”

One of the biggest things going for Vickers and that entire No. 83 crew is confidence. The team has finished in the top-12 for the last seven races and during that same period of time in the Nationwide Series Vickers has scored two top-3 finishes, three top-7 finishes and started on the front row twice (Chicago and Michigan).

“I think our chances are great at making the Chase,” Vickers went on to say. “I think we’re capable of it – as much or more capable of it than anybody that has an opportunity to make the Chase as of right now. That doesn’t mean that we will, and we’ve still got a lot of hard work ahead of us. There are no guarantees in this sport. The tide can turn in a matter of seconds.”

Busch knows how quickly things can take a turn for the worse.  Multiple times this year and at the outset of last year’s Chase Busch struggled and fell behind the eight ball. With those let downs fresh in his memory, Busch understands the most important thing is to stay smart.

“You’ve got to be smart,” Busch explained. “That’s the biggest thing. You can’t put yourself in a predicament that gets you wrecked. You can’t be racing around guys that don’t race very well sometimes and get yourself caught up in something you don’t need to be in. Unfortunately, that’s what I’ve done this year. I haven’t been very smart this year. It’s not these next two weeks that are going to keep us out, it’s what we’ve already done.”

Both former Hendrick Motorsports drivers, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have worked with both Busch and Vickers and know each of them well. While each have their own advantages over the other, these former champion teammates believe Busch has the upper hand looking forward to the Chase.

“Brian has a good head on his shoulders and can really focus on the job and I think be a little more stable in some situations,” Jimmie Johnson said Saturday. “I think some of the tracks in the Chase, if he is able to make the Chase, are pretty challenging for his team. They're still trying to find the balance there. So I kind of put Brian behind Kyle in the sense that I think Kyle has a better chance of making the Chase and being a little more competitive in the Chase because of the notes and the equipment and stuff at Gibbs. Those guys are spot-on and do a great job and the Red Bull team is still building. I don't want to take anything away from them. They've done an awesome job this year. They've won a race and each week we see them becoming more competitive. But I kind of put Brian in a stronger mental standpoint than maybe what Kyle is; and maybe the car is a little bit better on the Gibbs side versus the Red Bull side. But I'd love to see Brian in the Chase. He's a great friend and was a teammate at one point and I think it would be a good story to see the Red Bull guys in the Chase. They've been working real hard."

“I think that Kyle is so explosive in the way where he can win at any moment and he can go on a hot streak and be as dangerous from a standpoint of putting wins together and racking up a lot of points.  This is a good track for him and Richmond is a good track for him,” Gordon added. “Brian, that team has really gained momentum and I think his maturity level has really shown, his patience and his talent -- that team is on a roll.  I don’t know, it’s hard to say.  I think Brian runs really well here and he qualified well at Richmond, but they struggled at Richmond.  I would put the upper hand with Kyle just a slight bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Brian pulls it off.”

While we can compare these two Chase chasers, it is also important to note that making the Chase for these two will also take someone ahead of them making a mistake and slipping in the points. Matt Kenseth is currently sitting twelfth in the standings, while Kasey Kahne, Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman are in no way locked into the Chase.

One thing is for sure, this Race to the Chase is going to be one for the books and produce a great deal of excitement along the way.

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